recession

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Recession

Tuesday, November 18th, 2008

I think something clicked in my head today about what a lengthy recession could look like. I saw a video on the news today of auto workers picketing in hopes of swaying lawmakers to bail out their failing companies. Earlier this week Citigroup announced that they will be laying off 50,000 employees globally. The reality of these layoffs is heart breaking.

This whole bail out thing is a crazy and complicated deal. You’ve got one side saying that the government should bail these employers out so that the fallout of a major industry doesn’t wreck our economy. Not bailing the auto industry out could mean that a foreign manufacturer would probably come in and purchase our auto industry for almost nothing. The other side says that a weak industry should die to make room for new more efficient jobs and technology. I think I understand where both sides are coming from. It’s a hard situation to say the least. Auto workers happen to be moms and dads trying to keep children in school and feed their families. Seeing these people as families makes the whole free market let them crash mentality seem to lack a little compassion.   The same picture shows people getting paid $70/hour for labor that is worth $6/hour in the global economy.

Either way the auto industry workers are about to get a major pay cut. This is the first time the auto industry and the UAW have stood on the same side of any issue. I’ve never seen what happens when a union agrees with an employer but I’m sure it won’t be pleasant for anyone.

What do you think?  Should the government bail any business out?

Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy

Monday, September 15th, 2008

News came out this weekend about Lehman Brothers filing bankruptcy. I’m a pretty conservative investor in times like the present but this news actually makes me wonder if the idea of an actual textbook recession is still hanging around. I was really expecting some of the banks who had written off gobs of debt would be showing some improvement in this quarter. I assumed that some of the debt that was written off would be collected in this quarter and inflate a few balance sheets. I didn’t bet the farm on it, and some banks have come back from earlier in the year, but I’m still very surprised.

I’m never a knee jerk investor but nothing makes me want to take my money out of the market more than the big guys filing bankruptcy. This could get crazy….possibly by the end of the week. I think tomorrow is going to be a telling day for the next couple of months.

AIG took a wicked hit today too. Wow.

I wonder if the presidential election is strong enough to calm the fears. Maybe it will bring peace to a wreck…..let’s hope this “wreck” is never more than an idea.